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US Treasury yields surged and the dollar strengthened ahead of key inflation data, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.43%. Inflation concerns are growing as economic data suggests a stronger economy, influencing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a 70% chance of cuts under 50 basis points by June 2025. The consensus forecasts for October's CPI remain at 2.4% year-over-year, indicating a potential continuation of the disinflation trend, while Fed officials signal that current rates are still restrictive, suggesting further cuts are likely.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated that the decision for another interest-rate cut at the December meeting will hinge on upcoming inflation data. He noted that a significant surprise in inflation could alter the current outlook for policymakers.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that a robust economy and increased productivity could lead to fewer interest rate cuts than anticipated. He emphasized that it is premature to assess the impact of the incoming Trump administration's policies on inflation and rate adjustments, urging a wait-and-see approach.
Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) has been included in UBS’ list of top stocks for the AI, growth, and low rates era as the market evolves post-pandemic. Following a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, major indexes saw gains, although recent turbulence has raised concerns about the pace of future cuts amid rising Treasury yields. The division among Federal Reserve officials regarding rate adjustments adds to the uncertainty in the market outlook.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) has been included in UBS' list of top stocks for the AI, growth, and low rates era, reflecting its resilience amid evolving market dynamics. Following a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, major US stock indexes experienced a brief surge, although recent turbulence has raised concerns about the pace of future rate adjustments. Investors are closely monitoring the differing views among Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy, which could impact market stability.
Bank of America (BAC) has been included in UBS' list of top stocks for the AI, growth, and low rates era, reflecting a shift in market dynamics since the pandemic. Following a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, major indexes saw gains, although recent turbulence has raised concerns about the pace of future cuts amid rising Treasury yields. The outlook remains cautious as policymakers express differing views on monetary policy adjustments.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has been included in UBS’ list of top stocks for the AI, growth, and low rates era, reflecting the ongoing evolution of the stock market since the pandemic. Following a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, major indexes like the S&P and NASDAQ saw gains, although recent turbulence has emerged due to concerns over the pace of future rate cuts and rising Treasury yields. The market remains cautious as policymakers express differing views on monetary policy direction.
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) has been recognized in UBS’ list of top stocks for the AI, growth, and low rates era, reflecting the ongoing evolution of the stock market since the pandemic. Following a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, major indexes saw gains, although recent turbulence has raised concerns about the pace of future cuts amid rising Treasury yields. The division among Federal Reserve officials regarding rate adjustments adds to the uncertainty in the market outlook.
NextEra Energy, Inc. has been included in UBS's list of top stocks for the AI, growth, and low rates era, reflecting its strong position amid evolving market dynamics. Following a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, major US stock indexes saw gains, although recent turbulence has raised concerns about the pace of future cuts. Diverging views among Federal Reserve officials highlight ongoing uncertainties in the economic landscape.
Robust American economic growth, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, has led to significant investment in AI-related sectors, with hardware and SaaS industries raising substantial funds in 2024. UBS remains optimistic about US stocks, highlighting the potential of tech companies in the AI value chain amid a supportive economic climate and recent interest rate cuts. Despite some market turbulence, the US economy is projected to outperform globally, with the IMF revising growth forecasts upward for 2024 and 2025.
Neel Kashkari
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